BP Closes pipeline...

[elfboy]

oh fsck....

Expect to pay three to five cents more at the pump as 8 percent of nation's production goes offline

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/07/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes


this sucks...any bets on how high it'll go? Think it'll go over 4 a gallon?

[lugnut]

oh fsck....

Expect to pay three to five cents more at the pump as 8 percent of nation's production goes offline

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/07/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes


this sucks...any bets on how high it'll go? Think it'll go over 4 a gallon?

I think the situation in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran has potential to take it over $5.00 per gallon. If the hurricane season is anything like last year $7-8 per gallon in some regions.

By 2012 $6.00 a gallon for gasoline will be the good old days. Hubberts peak in worldwide oil production is here now, and alternatives while in development won't take up the shortfall in supply. In 10 years oil shale can pick up some slack... bio fuels also have potential - cellulose based ethanol is in stsrtup phase. Corn based ethanol is a net energy consumer, no help there. It'd be nice if the US would take the Brazillians up on their offer to sell sugarcane based ethanol for lower prices, the protectionist actions by commerce under pressure from ag state congressmen is reprehensible.

Long dated unleaded gasoline futures are an almost sure bet if you don't mind being an evil speculator.

I guess you struck a nerve.

[elfboy]

I think the situation in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran has potential to take it over $5.00 per gallon. If the hurricane season is anything like last year $7-8 per gallon in some regions.

Yeah, find any word on Iran's plan to sell oil for Euro's (they were planning on starting a Euro based exchange iirc). That would give our economy a nice healthy kick in the teeth...

And yeah, one good hurricane could take out the gulf's production for awhile (and there is a LOT of heat going around right now to power it...)

By 2012 $6.00 a gallon for gasoline will be the good old days. Hubberts peak in worldwide oil production is here now, and alternatives while in

There's still a bit of debate of exactly when peak oil will be reached, not sure if it's quite here and now though...

development won't take up the shortfall in supply. In 10 years oil shale can pick up some slack... bio fuels also have potential - cellulose based ethanol is in stsrtup phase. Corn based ethanol is a net energy consumer, no help there. It'd be nice if the US would take the Brazillians up on their offer to sell sugarcane based ethanol for lower prices, the protectionist actions by commerce under pressure from ag state congressmen is reprehensible.

There are also the oilsands which are ramping up (slightly better than shale, worse than standard on extrable energy ratios iirc). It's pretty sad that yeah, corn based will win over sugarcane in the States as an alt-fuel. Bio-fuel needs so much ramp up time to get freight and industry going that we're in for a very painful transition phase....

Long dated unleaded gasoline futures are an almost sure bet if you don't mind being an evil speculator.

I guess you struck a nerve.

Heh... 10billion a quarter profits striking a nerve? go figure 8)

[lugnut]

Yeah, find any word on Iran's plan to sell oil for Euro's (they were planning on starting a Euro based exchange iirc). That would give our economy a nice healthy kick in the teeth...

I belive Russia is doing at least nat gas trading in Rubles. Iran hasn't started the Euro oil bourse yet, I think the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting last month convinced them to hold off for a bit. China and Russia are now strategic partners with Iran, and China can't afford a fast devaluation in the dollar.

There's still a bit of debate of exactly when peak oil will be reached, not sure if it's quite here and now though...

Not seeing much discovery action. I do see supply currently holding steady at about 80 Million barrels a day production. Saudis claim they can increase production, but why is supply continuing so very close to demand?

Pemex is saying its fields are in decline. North Sea is in decline. US has been in decline for over 20 years.

There are also the oilsands which are ramping up (slightly better than shale, worse than standard on extrable energy ratios iirc). It's pretty sad that yeah, corn based will win over sugarcane in the States as an alt-fuel. Bio-fuel needs so much ramp up time to get freight and industry going that we're in for a very painful transition phase....

High prices will force investment in developing alt fuels. Free market is painful during the transition. I've got a nice book on this situation coming from Amazon - "Peter Tertzakian - A thousand barrels a second", looks at history of break points in energy sources (wood-coal-oil transitions all had painful transitions of varying length). That we'll face a transition from oil isn't in doubt, how to mitigate some of the pain is one of the grand policy issues of the current time. Gotta wonder about whether the increased pace of technological innovation will ease this transition (I'm ready Kurzweil's "Singularity is Near" currently, so I readily think a rabbit may be pulled out of a nanoscale hat to solve some of these problems).

Heh... 10billion a quarter profits striking a nerve? go figure 8)

You didn't own any Exxon last year ? Nice ROI there, might be played out though. I think oil transport is still a good place to be long. YMMV

[Cruisingram]

Well, dammit, I am still not certified in welding yet, getting my Bachelor of Science in Welding tech, only 2 years out now, dammit, wish this would have happened 2 years from now. They are offering silly money for welders right now. I have this friend, now retired welder, a self described "welding whore" on the pipeline when it was built - they mandatory retired him at age sixty about 1 1/2 years ago, called him 2 days ago, and asked him to "pretty please" come back to work. He told them "base pay is 240 bucks from the time I leave my front door until I get off the airplane in Anchorage, OT and Premium pay apply"- they said "we have a chartered jet waiting for you and 1 more welder"- they charted a jet for like 10 senior pipe welder types!

We call these guys "spillionares" in about 6 months- same thing happened back in the Exxon Valdez thing- bunch of guys became "spillionares" due to having the right boat at the right time, or certain need that was rare, like one guy that had a catering boat, he brought the meals to the big wigs there, man, he said he was like, paying the boat off every week!

State of Alaska won't even take the hit- they plan on taking the entire revenue loss out of BPs ass as well.

It is really part of the oil corporate culture world wide- it is not the profits world wide that matter to these companies- it is profit from each operation that is the main thing here- an exec can't move up in promotion unless he has "X" profit margin projected by the bean counters, and they don't spend enough on infrastructure maintenance, about every oil company that has managed that field has had massive complaints of this- in fact, Exxon lost millions to a whistleblower named chuck hamel for a illegal wackenhut investigation, because engineers were passing pipeline flaws to him, and they wanted to keep it quiet.

We all knew it was coming, it was just a matter of which company got left holding the potatoe in this particular 20 year long game of "hot potatoe"