Close to home

[lugnut]

Lots of rumor, nothing confirmed.

Asha, a tall blonde Polish emigre cashier at the Ben Lomond Market has been missing since Saturday. Her car was found about a mile from her home, and last night there were rumors of a female body being found on Love Creek road, with the figure of 98% certain that it was Asha.

I ran into a couple of neighbors at Henflings last night. Both being small statured women they were concerned for their safety, wondering what's going on. I tried to reassure them that death by mayhem is unlikely, but to be a bit more vigilant about their surroundings. I offerred to walk/ride them home if they felt threatened and gave them my phone number if they do feel a need for a protector.

I also suggested that continued speculating about Asha would get them worked up and paranoid. Let the sheriffs do their job and investigate and have some trust that they'll do a good job. Concluding that Asha was murdered may be reasonable, but concluding that a serial killer is operating in the area is alarmist and doesn't help anyone.

Nothing in any news papers as yet.

I'm a bit freaked, murder in one's figurative backyard is unsettling.

[elfboy]

"The Murder Capital of the World"

keep us posted with details...

[lugnut]

The last murder that was this close to home happened on the west side of bloomington indiana sometime prior to 1987 (my kids' mom was still in Indiana). Hippie woman living on undeveloped lot was murdered and dismembered by a 7-11 cashier with macabre literary asperations.

It freaks me out when people go missing and turn up dead. Still I think ratllesnake bites are more likely causes of death. There's another very unlikely cause of death on the radar in Ben Lomond, a local man is terminal with Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (Mad cow disease).

[seric]

Murder happens. Looking at the index we have 2,000+ murders a year in California. The real rate is probably a bit higher, considering many murders aren't ever reported. In 1993 the rate hit 4,096.

Even a fairly successful serial killer wouldn't effect these numbers much. The simple truth, is that it's easy to kill someone. We're all pretty dam nfragile. And I'm not going to go looking up numbers, but it's not hard to get away with it. Pretty much if it's a husband, wife, boyfriend, or girlfriend. They have a chance of getting caught. Other than that, forget about it.

I'm sure there's many more murders in our backyard. It's a fact of life, and as long as there's money and women, they'll be murder. All I'm really trying to say is it's pointless to worry about. Live a lifestyle where your not likely to get killed, and you probably won't be. You're better off worrying about that crazy volvo driver.

[Valgar]

You're better off worrying about that crazy volvo driver.

Goose?

[wackyiraqi]

You're right, Keith, but it still hits home sometimes.

If you look at a police blotter for my neighborhood (SoMA, southern station) you'd think nothing would phase me.

Still, when Alex Gong was gunned down around the block from my apartment a couple of years ago, it was pretty shocking. Broad daylight, busy intersection, etc.

Even though it's rare, statistics aren't all that comforting when it's so close and so random.

[lugnut]

Murder happens. Looking at the index we have 2,000+ murders a year in California. The real rate is probably a bit higher, considering many murders aren't ever reported. In 1993 the rate hit 4,096.

right, which puts the chances of dying of homicide at under 3000/30000000 or 1 in 10000 (rounding up on murder rate, down on population). I don't worry about it much. it's just freaky - that's the point the comparitive rarity makes it remarkable, and when it is in ones' back yard it feels like it is more likely - the reality is difficult to nail down, as sometimes there are clusters of events where bayesian probablilities would tend to put odds lower.

Similar psychological effects speak to fear of terrorism. Death by terrorist action in the US has never been over 1 in 100000, but the resources expended are grossly disproportionent to the risk.

Sentinal has coverage now, btw:
http://midday.santacruzsentinel.net/...t/view/206/25/

Even a fairly successful serial killer wouldn't effect these numbers much. The simple truth, is that it's easy to kill someone. We're all pretty dam nfragile. And I'm not going to go looking up numbers, but it's not hard to get away with it. Pretty much if it's a husband, wife, boyfriend, or girlfriend. They have a chance of getting caught. Other than that, forget about it.

I'm sure there's many more murders in our backyard. It's a fact of life, and as long as there's money and women, they'll be murder. All I'm really trying to say is it's pointless to worry about. Live a lifestyle where your not likely to get killed, and you probably won't be. You're better off worrying about that crazy volvo driver.

Did the biker killed in Brookdale yesterday get killed by a volvo? Same page in the Sentinal says Ford... Or were you talking about Goose?

[seric]

I was simply referring to a very old belief among sportbike riders that the two biggest threats are Volvo's and SUV's.

Volvo's made it in there because of the belief that since their drivers feel safer, they are less attentive.

[lugnut]

I was simply referring to a very old belief among sportbike riders that the two biggest threats are Volvo's and SUV's.

Volvo's made it in there because of the belief that since their drivers feel safer, they are less attentive.

Plus Volvo drivers (goose excepted) are more likely to be birkenstock wearing patchouli stinking... etc.

I do worry about cagers in general, figure they all want to kill me by being unaware I'm out there riding.

[wackyiraqi]

Death by terrorist action in the US has never been over 1 in 100000

I'm doing my best, I've just been busy at work. Cut me some slack, alright?.

[Rotten]

Did the biker killed in Brookdale yesterday get killed by a volvo? Same page in the Sentinal says Ford... Or were you talking about Goose?

Rumors of my death have been unfounded and premature but a safe bet none the less. Having owned both Fords and Volvos I found it more likely that a Ford was responsible due to the horendous handling characteristics.

[seric]

They positively identified the body, as Asha. Sorry Bill.

[lugnut]

They positively identified the body, as Asha. Sorry Bill.

yeah, it was in the sentinal link.

Current rumor is that a 50 year old manager (married, three kids) at Ben Lomond Market was the father of the murdered fetus.

This rumored father was placed in custody "on unrelated sexual assault charges" according to a couple of BLM employees. Motive, opportunity make me think they may have the killer.

[u_cant_prove_it]

Didnt Amber work there in the bank at BLM?

[lugnut]

Didnt Amber work there in the bank at BLM?

Amber does work in the bank branch there. I imagine she knows the rumored father/murderer.